Public activities preceding the onset of acute respiratory infection syndromes in adults in England - implications for the use of social distancing to control pandemic respiratory infections.
Identifieur interne : 000095 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000094; suivant : 000096Public activities preceding the onset of acute respiratory infection syndromes in adults in England - implications for the use of social distancing to control pandemic respiratory infections.
Auteurs : Andrew C. Hayward [Royaume-Uni] ; Sarah Beale [Royaume-Uni] ; Anne M. Johnson [Royaume-Uni] ; Ellen B. Fragaszy [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Wellcome open research [ 2398-502X ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Background: Social distancing measures may reduce the spread of emerging respiratory infections however, there is little empirical data on how exposure to crowded places affects risk of acute respiratory infection. Methods: We used a case-crossover design nested in a community cohort to compare self-reported measures of activities during the week before infection onset and baseline periods. The design eliminates the effect of non-time-varying confounders. Time-varying confounders were addressed by exclusion of illnesses around the Christmas period and seasonal adjustment. Results: 626 participants had paired data from the week before 1005 illnesses and the week before baseline. Each additional day of undertaking the following activities in the prior week was associated with illness onset: Spending more than five minutes in a room with someone (other than a household member) who has a cold (Seasonally adjusted OR 1·15, p=0·003); use of underground trains (1·31, p=0·036); use of supermarkets (1·32, p<0·001); attending a theatre, cinema or concert (1·26, p=0·032); eating out at a café, restaurant or canteen (1·25, p=0·003); and attending parties (1·47, p<0·001). Undertaking the following activities at least once in the previous week was associated with illness onset: using a bus, (aOR 1.48, p=0.049), shopping at small shops (1.9, p<0.002) attending a place of worship (1.81, p=0.005). Conclusions: Exposure to potentially crowded places, public transport and to individuals with a cold increases risk of acquiring circulating acute respiratory infections. This suggests social distancing measures can have an important impact on slowing transmission of emerging respiratory infections.
DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15795.1
PubMed: 32399501
PubMed Central: PMC7194223
Affiliations:
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Hayward</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>UCL Research Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, UCL, London, WC1E 7HB, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>UCL Research Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, UCL, London, WC1E 7HB</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>WC1E 7HB</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Beale, Sarah" sort="Beale, Sarah" uniqKey="Beale S" first="Sarah" last="Beale">Sarah Beale</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>UCL Public Health Data Science Research Group, Institute of Health Informatics, UCL, London, NW1 2DA, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>UCL Public Health Data Science Research Group, Institute of Health Informatics, UCL, London, NW1 2DA</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>NW1 2DA</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Johnson, Anne M" sort="Johnson, Anne M" uniqKey="Johnson A" first="Anne M" last="Johnson">Anne M. 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Hayward</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>UCL Research Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, UCL, London, WC1E 7HB, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>UCL Research Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, UCL, London, WC1E 7HB</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>WC1E 7HB</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Beale, Sarah" sort="Beale, Sarah" uniqKey="Beale S" first="Sarah" last="Beale">Sarah Beale</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>UCL Public Health Data Science Research Group, Institute of Health Informatics, UCL, London, NW1 2DA, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>UCL Public Health Data Science Research Group, Institute of Health Informatics, UCL, London, NW1 2DA</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>NW1 2DA</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Johnson, Anne M" sort="Johnson, Anne M" uniqKey="Johnson A" first="Anne M" last="Johnson">Anne M. Johnson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>UCL Institute of Global Health, UCL, London, WC1E 6JB, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>UCL Institute of Global Health, UCL, London, WC1E 6JB</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>WC1E 6JB</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fragaszy, Ellen B" sort="Fragaszy, Ellen B" uniqKey="Fragaszy E" first="Ellen B" last="Fragaszy">Ellen B. Fragaszy</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>UCL Public Health Data Science Research Group, Institute of Health Informatics, UCL, London, NW1 2DA, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>UCL Public Health Data Science Research Group, Institute of Health Informatics, UCL, London, NW1 2DA</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>NW1 2DA</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>WC1E 7HT</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Wellcome open research</title><idno type="ISSN">2398-502X</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><b>Background:</b> Social distancing measures may reduce the spread of emerging respiratory infections however, there is little empirical data on how exposure to crowded places affects risk of acute respiratory infection. <b>Methods:</b> We used a case-crossover design nested in a community cohort to compare self-reported measures of activities during the week before infection onset and baseline periods. The design eliminates the effect of non-time-varying confounders. Time-varying confounders were addressed by exclusion of illnesses around the Christmas period and seasonal adjustment. <b>Results:</b> 626 participants had paired data from the week before 1005 illnesses and the week before baseline. Each additional day of undertaking the following activities in the prior week was associated with illness onset: Spending more than five minutes in a room with someone (other than a household member) who has a cold (Seasonally adjusted OR 1·15, <i>p</i>=0·003); use of underground trains (1·31, <i>p</i>=0·036); use of supermarkets (1·32, <i>p</i><0·001); attending a theatre, cinema or concert (1·26, <i>p</i>=0·032); eating out at a café, restaurant or canteen (1·25, <i>p</i>=0·003); and attending parties (1·47, <i>p</i><0·001). Undertaking the following activities at least once in the previous week was associated with illness onset: using a bus, (aOR 1.48, p=0.049), shopping at small shops (1.9, p<0.002) attending a place of worship (1.81, p=0.005). <b>Conclusions:</b> Exposure to potentially crowded places, public transport and to individuals with a cold increases risk of acquiring circulating acute respiratory infections. This suggests social distancing measures can have an important impact on slowing transmission of emerging respiratory infections.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32399501</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>22</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2398-502X</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>5</Volume><PubDate><Year>2020</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Wellcome open research</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Wellcome Open Res</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Public activities preceding the onset of acute respiratory infection syndromes in adults in England - implications for the use of social distancing to control pandemic respiratory infections.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>54</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15795.1</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText><b>Background:</b> Social distancing measures may reduce the spread of emerging respiratory infections however, there is little empirical data on how exposure to crowded places affects risk of acute respiratory infection. <b>Methods:</b> We used a case-crossover design nested in a community cohort to compare self-reported measures of activities during the week before infection onset and baseline periods. The design eliminates the effect of non-time-varying confounders. Time-varying confounders were addressed by exclusion of illnesses around the Christmas period and seasonal adjustment. <b>Results:</b> 626 participants had paired data from the week before 1005 illnesses and the week before baseline. Each additional day of undertaking the following activities in the prior week was associated with illness onset: Spending more than five minutes in a room with someone (other than a household member) who has a cold (Seasonally adjusted OR 1·15, <i>p</i>=0·003); use of underground trains (1·31, <i>p</i>=0·036); use of supermarkets (1·32, <i>p</i><0·001); attending a theatre, cinema or concert (1·26, <i>p</i>=0·032); eating out at a café, restaurant or canteen (1·25, <i>p</i>=0·003); and attending parties (1·47, <i>p</i><0·001). Undertaking the following activities at least once in the previous week was associated with illness onset: using a bus, (aOR 1.48, p=0.049), shopping at small shops (1.9, p<0.002) attending a place of worship (1.81, p=0.005). <b>Conclusions:</b> Exposure to potentially crowded places, public transport and to individuals with a cold increases risk of acquiring circulating acute respiratory infections. This suggests social distancing measures can have an important impact on slowing transmission of emerging respiratory infections.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright: © 2020 Hayward AC et al.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hayward</LastName><ForeName>Andrew C</ForeName><Initials>AC</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3549-6232</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>UCL Research Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, UCL, London, WC1E 7HB, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Beale</LastName><ForeName>Sarah</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4038-7460</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>UCL Public Health Data Science Research Group, Institute of Health Informatics, UCL, London, NW1 2DA, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Johnson</LastName><ForeName>Anne M</ForeName><Initials>AM</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>UCL Institute of Global Health, UCL, London, WC1E 6JB, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fragaszy</LastName><ForeName>Ellen B</ForeName><Initials>EB</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0178-6098</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>UCL Public Health Data Science Research Group, Institute of Health Informatics, UCL, London, NW1 2DA, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><CollectiveName>Flu Watch Group</CollectiveName></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>MR/K006584/1</GrantID><Acronym>MRC_</Acronym><Agency>Medical Research Council</Agency><Country>United Kingdom</Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>30</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Wellcome Open Res</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101696457</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2398-502X</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Acute Respiratory Infection</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemic</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Social Distancing</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Transmission</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>Competing interests: AH serves on UK New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group. AMJ was a Governor of Wellcome Trust from 2011-18 and is Chair of the Committee for Strategic Coordination for Health of the Public Research. The other authors declare no competing interests.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>23</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>14</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>14</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>14</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32399501</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15795.1</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7194223</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2020 Feb 15;395(10223):514-523</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">31986261</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>PLoS One. 2013 Apr 16;8(4):e60127</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23613718</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Emerg Infect Dis. 2011 Aug;17(8):1455-62</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">21801623</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>BMC Infect Dis. 2017 Jul 26;17(1):521</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">28747154</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Am J Epidemiol. 1991 Jan 15;133(2):144-53</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">1985444</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>BMC Public Health. 2019 Jul 4;19(1):879</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">31272411</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Value Health. 2017 Jun;20(6):819-827</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">28577700</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Clin Infect Dis. 2017 Nov 13;65(11):1905-1913</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">29028950</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>BMJ Open. 2018 Jan 24;8(1):e016876</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">29371265</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>N Engl J Med. 2020 Mar 26;382(13):1268-1269</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32109011</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Proc Biol Sci. 2014 Aug 22;281(1789):20140709</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">25009062</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>BMC Public Health. 2014 Jun 11;14:589</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24920395</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2018 Apr 09;4(2):e40</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">29631987</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>BMC Infect Dis. 2011 Jan 14;11:16</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">21235795</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 21;9(2):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32098019</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Curr Opin Virol. 2018 Feb;28:142-151</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">29452994</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Int J Epidemiol. 2017 Apr 1;46(2):e18</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">26940466</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Epidemiology. 2018 Nov;29(6):804-816</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">30080695</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2011 Jul 06;(7):CD006207</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">21735402</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2013 Mar;7(2):177-83</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">22458533</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>BMC Med. 2009 Dec 10;7:76</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">20003249</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>BMC Infect Dis. 2014 May 01;14:232</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24885043</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet Respir Med. 2014 Jun;2(6):445-54</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24717637</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet Infect Dis. 2009 May;9(5):291-300</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19393959</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Royaume-Uni</li></country></list><tree><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Hayward, Andrew C" sort="Hayward, Andrew C" uniqKey="Hayward A" first="Andrew C" last="Hayward">Andrew C. Hayward</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Beale, Sarah" sort="Beale, Sarah" uniqKey="Beale S" first="Sarah" last="Beale">Sarah Beale</name><name sortKey="Fragaszy, Ellen B" sort="Fragaszy, Ellen B" uniqKey="Fragaszy E" first="Ellen B" last="Fragaszy">Ellen B. Fragaszy</name><name sortKey="Fragaszy, Ellen B" sort="Fragaszy, Ellen B" uniqKey="Fragaszy E" first="Ellen B" last="Fragaszy">Ellen B. Fragaszy</name><name sortKey="Johnson, Anne M" sort="Johnson, Anne M" uniqKey="Johnson A" first="Anne M" last="Johnson">Anne M. Johnson</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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